The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7–6) host the Atlanta Falcons (4–9) on Thursday Night Football in a pivotal NFC South showdown. Both teams are struggling to find consistency late in the season, but Tampa Bay remains in better playoff position and enters this matchup as a 4.5-point favorite at Raymond James Stadium.

Atlanta has dropped seven of its last eight, while Tampa Bay has lost five of its last seven — but the Bucs already defeated the Falcons 23–20 in Week 1. With the all-time series tied 32–32, this matchup doubles as both a rivalry battle and a crucial divisional test.

Game Information

• Matchup: Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

• Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

• TV: Amazon Prime Video

• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

• Odds (DraftKings):

  • Spread: TB -4.5

  • Total: 44.5 points

  • Moneyline: ATL +190 | TB -231

The Falcons and Buccaneers will face off on Thursday Night Football in Week 15

Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction & Expert Picks

ATS Pick: Buccaneers -4.5
Over/Under: Over 44.5
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 28 – Falcons 18

Tampa Bay’s offense with Baker Mayfield is producing steadier results than Atlanta’s injury-hit unit, and playing at home gives the Bucs a clear edge. The Falcons’ defense has been inconsistent, while the Bucs’ playmakers match up well against Atlanta’s weakened secondary.

SportsLine’s projection model also leans toward the Over, projecting 48 total points.

Why Tampa Bay Can Cover (-4.5)

Baker Mayfield remains the difference-maker

Mayfield has thrown for 2,722 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs and adds mobility with 285 rushing yards. In Week 1 vs Atlanta, he delivered 3 passing TDs and moved the chains on key scrambles.

Emeka Egbuka emerging as WR1

The rookie wideout has been a breakout star:

• 54 receptions

• 806 yards

• 6 touchdowns

His big-play potential (14.9 YPC) stretches defenses and opens opportunities for the run game.

Improved defensive efficiency

Tampa Bay ranks 8th against the run and has key defensive leaders producing consistent tackles and pressure, including Tykee Smith, Lavonte David, and Antoine Winfield Jr.

At home, the Buccaneers have also been stronger ATS and as moneyline favorites.

Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Why Atlanta Can Cover (+4.5)

Kirk Cousins stabilizing the offense

With Michael Penix Jr. out, Cousins has stepped in and produced solid numbers:

• 845 yards, 3 TDs in six games

• Efficient passing performances in recent matchups vs the Saints and Jets

Bijan Robinson is in elite form

The Falcons’ RB ranks among the NFL’s best:

• 1,081 rushing yards (5.0 YPC)

• 5 TD rushing, 602 receiving yards
  Atlanta’s offense relies heavily on Robinson’s dual-threat impact.

Defensive strengths vs the pass

Despite struggles overall, Atlanta ranks 9th in pass yards allowed, which could slow Mayfield and keep the game within the spread.

The Falcons have also covered in 3 of 4 games when underdogs of 4.5 points or more.

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Head-to-Head: Recent Meetings

• Atlanta leads last 5 meetings: 3–2

• Total points last 5 games:

  • Falcons: 128

  • Buccaneers: 121

• Last matchup: Buccaneers 23–20 (Sept. 7, 2025)

Despite Tampa being favored, recent history shows Atlanta has played them very closely.

Team Stats Comparison

Buccaneers (7–6)

Key Players:
Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr.

Falcons (4–9)

Key Players:
Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Tyler Allgeier, Kyle Pitts, Kaden Elliss, Jessie Bates III.

Final Prediction: Buccaneers 28 – Falcons 18

Tampa Bay’s offensive weapons, home-field advantage, and matchup edge in the trenches give them the upper hand. Atlanta can keep it competitive early, but late-game defensive breakdowns have been a season-long problem.

Expect the Bucs to take control in the second half and cover the spread.

FAQs – Buccaneers vs Falcons (Dec. 11, 2025)

1. What time does the Buccaneers vs Falcons game start?

The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 11, 2025, at Raymond James Stadium.

2. Who is favored to win Buccaneers vs Falcons?

The Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites, according to the latest odds from DraftKings.

3. What is the score prediction for Buccaneers vs Falcons?

Analysts project a Buccaneers 28 – Falcons 18 victory, with Tampa Bay expected to pull away late.

4. Which key players are out or injured?

Atlanta is without QB Michael Penix Jr., while Tampa Bay is mostly healthy, relying heavily on Baker Mayfield and rookie WR Emeka Egbuka.

5. Where can I watch the Buccaneers vs Falcons game?

The game will be broadcast exclusively on Amazon Prime Video, with live stats available via FOX Sports.

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